I am going to tell you a story. Actually, it is a story inside a story. It is an important story, one which may surprise you. A story you may find hard to believe.
If I have engendered any trust in those who read my blogs and posts, believe what you are going read and share this post. I am trying to use what I have learned about human nature, specifically how flawed our decision making can be, to improve our country. I will be referring to psycho/economic theories which won their creators a Nobel prize in economics in 2002.
Readers will recognize my surprise, shock, and agony over the results of the last election in the U.S. I am hoping those who have followed me will share this story with as many as possible, so that eventually this may be read by the curious eyes of some non-liberals, non-democrats, who have a mind that has opened somewhat since they cast a vote for whatever reason, for 45.
How condensed can one make a story which two psychologists spent most of their lives to create? How much can it be stuffed into a short essay while suffusing it with comprehensibility and acceptance? I have to give it a go.
There are two main stories here. The first is how 45 got elected. The short answer is that 45 ran an unusual campaign that told a story of our country that many unsatisfied, perhaps undereducated, people liked to hear. They wanted to hear it. It was theatre. 45, did not care about winning or losing anything. He was free to fly. Free to lie. His campaign managers handed him a good story to tell which, at least then, fit the mood of the nation. Well, not the whole nation, but at least the targeted people and places which helped 45 win the electoral college.
People seem to have a hard time making choices. We all have built in flaws, maybe evolutionary paradigms, which affect the decisions or choices we make in strange ways. Playing into these decisions are many factors such as the odds of attempting to win or gain something of worth, or the odds of avoiding pain, or losing something we already value. Further, we need to know if the value of something we want is the same as that recalled from memory, experienced in the present, or imagined it to be in the future?
People tend to be, and it seems to be a joke many openly accept about themselves, simply bad at math. Moreover, they, we, are bad at statistics and probabilities.
How can one make a good decision which involves the probability of a specific outcome, if one’s useful knowledge of probability is lacking?
45 had a documented history of making many bad business deals. He has a reputation and record of scamming people out of their money. People could easily find out that he cheated on all his wives. He was not a good businessman. He failed so many times at business, he couldn’t get loans in the United States. He has been involved in literally thousands of lawsuits. He publicly was heard demeaning women and bragging about how he could molest them at will. This and the closet of full of other ill fitting clothes, do not seem to make for a good presidential candidacy. What was the probability of success with that history?
But that is not the story he told.
He said he was the best businessman ever to exist. He could make deals no one else in the world could. He loved and cherished all women. He was the defender of the Haitians who found asylum in the U.S. He was the greatest supporter of law and order in the country. He was going to protect us from ISIS. He was going to show North Korea who was boss. A wall would be erected that easily would, not only put an end to illegal immigration, but stop all illegal drugs flooding into our country. He simply was the best candidate to make our country great again. The wealthy heard this as making them richer. The poor heard Jesus, feeding them, clothing them, and protecting them from the cruel world.
This is the story 45 told. People misjudged the probability that voting for him would have a positive outcome for them.
The theory I mentioned earlier, relating to decision making, is that people do not choose between two things (or in this case, two candidates). They, we, decide between two stories.
The second story is how people deal with terrible events like the accidental death of a loved one in a car accident? Or how does one deal with an election result gone completely awry? How does one deal with a tragedy? How could one undo this. What is the best narrative that one tells oneself during this inevitable period of mourning. In a accident, couldn’t one of the cars involved left home a minute later. Couldn’t one of them have taken a different route. Maybe the driver was on his cell phone. Well, there is no way to legislate or educate undoing time and place, but cell phone use while driving?
People who drive while talking on the phone say it doesn’t affect their driving, but statistics say that they are impaired as if they are driving while at the legal limit of intoxication. Hmmm. How do people respond to how impaired they would be after having 3-4 drinks before getting behind the wheel? They say about 5%. Statistics say about 30%. People do not regularly make good decisions. To undo, or rather avoid accidents there has to be safer behavior behind the wheel.
How do we undo 45’s presidency? We could have been more aware of Russian interference in the campaigns. Perhaps Comey on several occasions could have chosen not to have revealed information about ongoing investigations that resulted in basically nothing but alarming voters and changing the story about Clinton. The electoral college could have thrown its vote to the winner of the plurality of votes. Perhaps we shouldn’t have had the electoral college system. We mourn the destruction 45 has brought to our country, it’s culture and reputation. What can we do?
There is the story of predictable government, fair government, honest government, sane government. Government which unequivocally values all people, unequivocally denounces hate and division. Government that not only protects us, but supports us. Then there is a story how how important it is to register to vote or better yet have everyone of age automatically registered. Get a mail-in ballot to every voter or help people get to the polls to cast their ballots.
Tell a story of how important, how valuable, your vote is.
This year is the year saner heads can prevail, but only if our story is the more appealing, the more satisfying, more reality than evil, nasty fairy tale, and more probable to deliver health, security and stability to every corner, community and city in our country.
Please share.
If I have engendered any trust in those who read my blogs and posts, believe what you are going read and share this post. I am trying to use what I have learned about human nature, specifically how flawed our decision making can be, to improve our country. I will be referring to psycho/economic theories which won their creators a Nobel prize in economics in 2002.
Readers will recognize my surprise, shock, and agony over the results of the last election in the U.S. I am hoping those who have followed me will share this story with as many as possible, so that eventually this may be read by the curious eyes of some non-liberals, non-democrats, who have a mind that has opened somewhat since they cast a vote for whatever reason, for 45.
How condensed can one make a story which two psychologists spent most of their lives to create? How much can it be stuffed into a short essay while suffusing it with comprehensibility and acceptance? I have to give it a go.
There are two main stories here. The first is how 45 got elected. The short answer is that 45 ran an unusual campaign that told a story of our country that many unsatisfied, perhaps undereducated, people liked to hear. They wanted to hear it. It was theatre. 45, did not care about winning or losing anything. He was free to fly. Free to lie. His campaign managers handed him a good story to tell which, at least then, fit the mood of the nation. Well, not the whole nation, but at least the targeted people and places which helped 45 win the electoral college.
People seem to have a hard time making choices. We all have built in flaws, maybe evolutionary paradigms, which affect the decisions or choices we make in strange ways. Playing into these decisions are many factors such as the odds of attempting to win or gain something of worth, or the odds of avoiding pain, or losing something we already value. Further, we need to know if the value of something we want is the same as that recalled from memory, experienced in the present, or imagined it to be in the future?
People tend to be, and it seems to be a joke many openly accept about themselves, simply bad at math. Moreover, they, we, are bad at statistics and probabilities.
How can one make a good decision which involves the probability of a specific outcome, if one’s useful knowledge of probability is lacking?
45 had a documented history of making many bad business deals. He has a reputation and record of scamming people out of their money. People could easily find out that he cheated on all his wives. He was not a good businessman. He failed so many times at business, he couldn’t get loans in the United States. He has been involved in literally thousands of lawsuits. He publicly was heard demeaning women and bragging about how he could molest them at will. This and the closet of full of other ill fitting clothes, do not seem to make for a good presidential candidacy. What was the probability of success with that history?
But that is not the story he told.
He said he was the best businessman ever to exist. He could make deals no one else in the world could. He loved and cherished all women. He was the defender of the Haitians who found asylum in the U.S. He was the greatest supporter of law and order in the country. He was going to protect us from ISIS. He was going to show North Korea who was boss. A wall would be erected that easily would, not only put an end to illegal immigration, but stop all illegal drugs flooding into our country. He simply was the best candidate to make our country great again. The wealthy heard this as making them richer. The poor heard Jesus, feeding them, clothing them, and protecting them from the cruel world.
This is the story 45 told. People misjudged the probability that voting for him would have a positive outcome for them.
The theory I mentioned earlier, relating to decision making, is that people do not choose between two things (or in this case, two candidates). They, we, decide between two stories.
The second story is how people deal with terrible events like the accidental death of a loved one in a car accident? Or how does one deal with an election result gone completely awry? How does one deal with a tragedy? How could one undo this. What is the best narrative that one tells oneself during this inevitable period of mourning. In a accident, couldn’t one of the cars involved left home a minute later. Couldn’t one of them have taken a different route. Maybe the driver was on his cell phone. Well, there is no way to legislate or educate undoing time and place, but cell phone use while driving?
People who drive while talking on the phone say it doesn’t affect their driving, but statistics say that they are impaired as if they are driving while at the legal limit of intoxication. Hmmm. How do people respond to how impaired they would be after having 3-4 drinks before getting behind the wheel? They say about 5%. Statistics say about 30%. People do not regularly make good decisions. To undo, or rather avoid accidents there has to be safer behavior behind the wheel.
How do we undo 45’s presidency? We could have been more aware of Russian interference in the campaigns. Perhaps Comey on several occasions could have chosen not to have revealed information about ongoing investigations that resulted in basically nothing but alarming voters and changing the story about Clinton. The electoral college could have thrown its vote to the winner of the plurality of votes. Perhaps we shouldn’t have had the electoral college system. We mourn the destruction 45 has brought to our country, it’s culture and reputation. What can we do?
There is the story of predictable government, fair government, honest government, sane government. Government which unequivocally values all people, unequivocally denounces hate and division. Government that not only protects us, but supports us. Then there is a story how how important it is to register to vote or better yet have everyone of age automatically registered. Get a mail-in ballot to every voter or help people get to the polls to cast their ballots.
Tell a story of how important, how valuable, your vote is.
This year is the year saner heads can prevail, but only if our story is the more appealing, the more satisfying, more reality than evil, nasty fairy tale, and more probable to deliver health, security and stability to every corner, community and city in our country.
Please share.
